State of the Republic
100 years as a state. 94 years of republic. 78 years of occupation. 5 different foreign forces. Decades of mafia rule. Hundreds of political assassinations. Hundreds of thousands martyred. Many betted on the fall of the Republic. Others conspired for its balkanization.
AND YET AGAINST ALL ODDS, THE REPUBLIC STILL STANDS.
A five thousand-year-old civilization. Over two millenniums of subordination to larger empires. Many burned our ports, looted our lands and sought to occupy our mountains and valley. Seven times, Beirut was destroyed and rebuilt. Others sought to erase our history and identity.
AND YET AGAINST ALL ODDS, OUR CIVILIZATION STILL STANDS.
Those who know our history know that the Republic will not fall. The land will not fall. Our civilization will not fall.
How could a nation be dead if it isn’t even fully born yet and is still attached to the womb of its mother?
Make no mistake about it, Lebanon is going through its worst humanitarian crisis in its history, with a psychological shock perhaps much greater today than in 1914 or during the war. Beirut has entered the record books for one of the most tragic events in world history, with the trauma of Beirutis being one that few have experienced in life.
The worsening of hunger conditions cannot be allowed to continue any longer. How can it be avoided? There are two scenarios really, either society positively uses the crisis as an impetus for drastic and permanent change, or Lebanon continues to drown until its existence becomes called into question…
A couple of years from now, there is no feasible solution in which the people are having their basic needs met, the economy is on the right path to recovery, and cartel factions still hold substantial influence over political affairs…
The optimal case scenario is a soft transition of power, in which the electricity and banking sectors are somehow properly restructured, while gradual measures are implemented to enable the emergence of a new political regime within a couple of years. This would also require a new national security arrangement, maybe some sort of expanded United Nations mandate for a few years to avoid security disturbances during the transition.
Under such a scenario, funds would flow back in gradually to reduce poverty and support basic services for a couple of years, while national incomes and employment could maybe return to pre-crisis levels within five years…
Remember, the cartel is made up of various factions of impotent men, with no cards left in hand. They each talk about reform, then throw the ball at each other when they realize the enactment of these reforms would threaten their immunity or weaken their power base.
They continue to engage in horse trading between each other, playing a game of chicken and looking to buy time until they get hit by a higher power.
Every day from now they remain in power is an additional day of hunger and depression for the Lebanese people, which will only blow back in the cartel’s face infinitely more down the line. The sooner they stop miscalculating the streets, realize they are playing a losing game and that they should start cutting their losses, the smoother the outcome for everyone in society will be.
Remember, the electricity and banking sectors are nothing but baby steps. We cannot even think of punishing criminals without a state. We cannot even aspire to build a state without a new republic. We cannot even dream of having a new republic without a new social contract and a new security pact.
While the knowledge over the solution is well-known, its application is more complex. Firstly, it requires a continued momentum and shift in favor of the pro-change coalition against the power of the cartel. Secondly, it requires the right information and education about the benefits of these changes to society, via all mediums of information.
Supporting these new social and security pacts, in a fair, balanced and multi-confessional manner, will become a moral and national duty for all those who believe in the preservation of our great nation and civilization.
To all those suffering currently through one of the worst ever humanitarian tragedies, I send you my thoughts and prayers. Please do not lose hope. You can scream, cry, throw insults as much as you want. Having to leave the country temporarily, provided you are able to, whether your home was destroyed, to cater to personal ambitions or provide for your family is completely understandable and should never be regarded as abandoning the country. For the longer-term, the history of our land and people provides enough reasons needed to be filled with hope.
To all those who have been martyred, I tell you, your sacrifices will never be forgotten. To all those who have been martyred, I tell you, justice will be served, and those you have left behind will enjoy a much better life in our country. To all those who have been martyred, I promise you, Lebanon will not remain a vassal state forever. To all those who have been martyred, I promise you, this new century will be dedicated to you, and we will not have gotten there without all your sacrifices.
After all the challenges our nation has faced throughout history, do you really think obsolete mafia groups and a crumbling Iranian empire will be the cause of our downfall?
In the end, out of the ashes, the Phoenix will rise again. A new Order, a new Republic, a new Pax, and a new Century are all under way.
The Land of Cedars once again will be celebrated all over the world for its eternal spirit of culture, coexistence and compassion.
Long Live the Republic! Long Live the great tribes of Lebanon! Long Live the Phoenician Spirit!
